THE INFLUENCE OF THE REDUCTION IN OIL PRICE AND THE DEVALUATION OF NAIRA ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH
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ABSTRACT
This study examined “influence of Oil Price reduction and Naira devaluation on Nigeria Economic Growth”. The study made use of Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity GARCH (1,1) model to estimate effect of oil price fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria. The data used was Quarterly data covering the period from 1986 - 2019 sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and OPEC database 2018. The variables used in the analysis are Gross Domestic product (GDP) was used as dependent variable, oil price, exchange rate and interest rate was used as the independent variable. The results shows that Oil price has positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Nigeria; reduction in oil prices, though has positive effects on economic growth but insignificant; Exchange rate(Naira Devaluation) has positive and significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that Since oil price is positively related to economic growth, government should utilize properly the proceeds received from oil occasioned by oil price increase to basic and improve basic infrastructures like good and motorable roads, quality education and stable power supply. Government should as a matter of urgency create both vertical and horizontal linkages in oil sector to diversify the economy through the proceeds from oil. Government should continue to judiciously invest in infrastructural development to address key bottlenecks in order to reduce the cost of domestic production and increase domestic supply.
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